School roll forecast methodology
We create a 15-year forecast each year to help plan schools, manage space, and support local planning decisions. The model uses local data and national trends to show how pupil numbers may change across the Highlands.
How we build the forecast
We bring together six key datasets to create a clear picture of future demand:
- Community Health Index: Anonymous doctor registration data shows how many preschool children live in each catchment area
- School Census Data: This shows where current pupils live and which schools they actually attend
- Housing Land Audit Data: This shows planned new homes and expected build rates
- National Population Forecasts: Data from National Records of Scotland (NRS) and the Office for National Statistics (ONS) shows wider population trends
- School Status Data: This confirms which schools are open and their official capacity
- Pupil Product Ratios (PPR): These estimate how many pupils may come from new housing developments
You can find out more about national forecasts from National Records of Scotland.
How the model works
The system combines this data to estimate future pupil numbers using four steps:
- Baseline Population: We use current child population data and national forecasts to project pupil numbers by year group in each catchment area
- Internal Movement: New housing can change where families live. The model accounts for movement within the Highlands based on where and when homes are built
- Catchment Flow: Not all children attend their catchment school. We use census data to map real attendance patterns so forecasts reflect how schools are actually used
- Checks and Alignment: We build checks into each stage and compare results with Scottish Government projections to keep forecasts reliable
Predicting pupil numbers from new homes
We use Pupil Product Ratios (PPR) to estimate how many children may live in new homes. These ratios vary across 8 geographic zones to reflect local differences.
We use this approach to give a realistic view of future school demand. However, new housing does not always increase a school’s roll.
This is because:
- birth rates are falling across Scotland
- fewer preschool children are entering the system
- many families move within the Highlands rather than moving into the area from outside
This means that new homes can shift pupils between catchments, but overall school rolls can still fall over time.
| Highland Area | Primary PPR | Secondary PPR |
|---|---|---|
| Badenoch and Strathspey | 0.17 | 0.12 |
| Inverness | 0.25 | 0.14 |
| Nairn | 0.24 | 0.09 |
| Sutherland | 0.17 | 0.07 |
| Skye and Lochalsh | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| Caithness | 0.21 | 0.16 |
| Lochaber | 0.22 | 0.13 |
| Ross and Cromarty (combined) | 0.20 | 0.12 |
Forecast outputs
We update forecasts each year and publish them online by Associated School Group (ASG). Each forecast shows the current school roll and a 15-year projection of pupil numbers.
We may also make updates during the year when needed. This can happen when:
- data is corrected
- housing build timelines change
- we run different scenarios to test future demand
These updates help keep forecasts accurate and useful for planning decisions.