School roll forecast methodology
We produce annual school roll forecasts to support effective planning of the school estate. These forecasts help assess future pupil numbers, identify capacity pressures, and inform decisions on infrastructure and development.
Forecasting methodology
The forecasting process uses a simplified Excel-based model covering both primary and secondary schools. It projects pupil numbers over a 15-year period, based on:
- Annual pupil census data
- School capacities
- NHS pre-school registration figures
- Placing Request trends
- Residential development data from the Housing Land Audit (HLA)
Forecasts include programmed housing sites and windfall developments, with pupil numbers estimated using Pupil Product Ratios (0.3 primary and 0.13 secondary pupils per new home).
View school Pupil Product Ratio review
Planning and scenario modelling
The model allows users to:
- view all contributing housing developments
- test development and school estate scenarios
- assess the impact of housing growth on individual schools
This approach ensures forecasts are transparent, easy to use, and aligned with planning needs.
Outputs and updates
Forecasts are published annually, with summary sheets for each Associated School Group (ASG).
These forecasts form a vital evidence base for planning decisions and help manage the school estate effectively.